Anthony Weiner topping New York mayor polls

By Jessica Huseman
@JessicaHuseman

Photo by Tony Fischer

Photo by Tony Fischer

Despite an awkward entry into the New York City mayor’s race, former New York Democratic Congressman Anthony Weiner is now surging ahead in polls, and finds himself in a statistical tie with New York City Council Speaker Christine Quinn and the city’s former comptroller, Bill Thompson.

The poll, conducted by Quinnipiac University between June 19 and June 25, shows the three within three percentage points of each other among registered Democrats, with Quin at 19 percent, Weiner at 17 percent and Thompson and 16 percent.

Quinn certainly had the most to lose from Weiner’s candidacy, and this poll shows how large of a blow his entry has dealt to her campaign. Quinn — who was the early favorite to become the city’s next mayor — has been falling steadily in polls among registered Democrats. In February, Quinnipiac’s poll had her at 37 percent and in April that dropped to 32.

In the most recent poll, Quinn maintains her lead with men (23 percent), though she is tied with Weiner among women (16 percent) and leads with white voters (23 percent). Thompson leads Weiner by one point over Weiner (21-20), and Quinn leads handily among Hispanics.

Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, seemed perplexed by Quinn’s slip.

“Former Comptroller William Thompson’s spurt—no doubt spurred in part by his endorsement last week by the United Federation of Teachers—is the big news in this new poll. The other news is Council Speaker Christine Quinn’s slide, and that’s more puzzling,” said Carroll in a statement. “A few polls ago, she was edging close to the magic 40 percent. Now she’s down with the guy.

“The demographic numbers are potentially good for Thompson, somewhat puzzling for Anthony Weiner. The only Black candidate, Thompson has comparatively low recognition among Black voters. Presumably, his support will rise as his recognition rises. Weiner, meanwhile, does almost as well among women as Quinn.”

The results in a new Marist/NBC/Wall Street Journal poll show Weiner leading with 25 percent support from Democratic voters, followed by Quinn (20 percent) and Thompson (13 percent).

The two top candidates have traded places since May when, shortly after Weiner entered the race, 24 percent of Democrats in NYC favored Quinn and 19 percent favored Weiner. Quite differently from Quinnipiac, the Marist poll shows Weiner ahead of Quinn with male voters (29 – 19 percent), and in a functional tie with women.

“The Weiner candidacy has scrambled the contest,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “But, nearly one in five Democrats are undecided, and almost two-thirds are not firmly committed to a candidate which makes for a lot of persuadable voters.”

Especially given the large number of candidates in the race for mayor and the large number of voters remaining undecided, this race is a complicated one for the polls. This race may also shake up tradition: As the New York Times’ FiveThirtyEight blog reports, the early favorite has a near perfect record in securing the Democratic Party’s nomination. Through mid-June, that favorite certainly Quinn, but Weiner is starting to steal the title.

The primary will be held Sept. 10, and a candidate must receive 40 percent of the vote to secure the nomination and avoid a run off.

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Posted by on July 5, 2013. Filed under Elections,Recent News. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0. You can leave a response or trackback to this entry

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