Bachmann’s momentum slowing, slowing, stuck.

Bachmann may have won the Ames Straw Poll in Iowa, but that doesn’t mean she’s invincible. With questions of her electability popping up like roadblocks and potentially stronger candidates, like Rick Perry, steeling her thunder, her quick roll has slowly slowed to a glacial pace.

First of all, the Ames Straw Poll isn’t a historical indicator that she’s going to come out on top. A few days ago, I chatted with Henry Olsen, the vice president and director of the National Research Initiative at the American Enterprise Institute who said “Neither the straw poll nor the caucuses themselves are an accurate predictor of who will actually win the
nomination.”

“George H.W. Bush won the caucuses in 1980, Bob Dole won in 1988, and Mike Huckabee won in 2008, but none of these candidates won the GOP nomination in those years. John McCain skipped Iowa in 2000 and 2008, yet he finished second to Bush in 2000 and won the nomination in 2008,” he said.

While Olsen said the poll was a “fair barometer” as to who will do well in Iowa, Bachmann probably would have done well in Iowa regardless because she grew up there and shares many of the ultra-conservative values that resonate so strongly in the Iowa caucuses.

But now that Rick Perry has finally emerged as a candidate, Bachmann finds herself in a sticky position. She can no longer claim that she is the most consistently conservative candidate, since Perry is willing to veto even an attempt to outlaw texting while driving as too much government intervention. She’s also no longer the candidate who attracts the most media attention, since Perry’s frat-boy attitude and I-love-Texas swag seems to attract reporters like UV lights attract mesquitos.

And it’s starting to affect her buzz. Take a look at these Twitter statistics analyzed by Aaron Blake and Chris Cillizza at The Washington Post. Perry is whooping Bachmann by more than double.

So, what’s a girl to do?

Well first of all, she needs to call off her dogs. Since the start of her campaign, her staff has gotten into five confrontations with members of the media who are traveling around with her. They’ve pushed, they’ve shoved, they’ve threatened violence. Mostly, it’s annoying and is not doing Michelle any favors with the “lamestream media.” Less violence and a more open attitude would help her entire campaign.

She should probably also stop complaining about Obama and set down some ground rules for why she should be elected. And, I’m sorry, promising $2 gas with no proof it will get done or real explanation of how she would do it is probably not enough. I hate high prices as much as anyone else but that just isn’t realistic, and is reminiscent of campaign promises like “I’ll make your wildest dreams come true.” Hey Bachmann, I’d also like my tuition paid for. Oh, and a pony.

She’ll also have to start looking out for other GOP campaigners, like Ron Paul, who has been routinely ignored by the media (as Jon Stewart so hilariously pointed out), even though he has been polling just behind Bachmann. People like what he has to say, and they like his attitude, but Bachmann is ignoring him just like the media.

Huntsman, I think, will also pick up momentum in the coming months. His moderate attitude is a cooling refresher from the flamingly conservative GOP pack, and I think he’ll start to appeal to the not-so-extreme Republicans who are still looking for a candidate that they can stand to listen to for more than five seconds.

In any case, Bachmann needs to clean up her campaign or start packing her bags. I’ll leave it up to you to decide which I’d prefer.

Posted by on August 22, 2011. Filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0. You can leave a response or trackback to this entry

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